#5 Darvin Moon

This Magic Run Will End Sooner Rather Than Later

Why Here:

The least accomplished player among the November Nine, Moon may have a substantial lead in chips entering final table play but I remain skeptical of his chances to retain that lead.

In fact, I think Moon loses the chip lead early in the proceedings (within an hour or two of play beginning) and things go downfall from there.

Like Dennis Phillips a year ago Moon should be proud of making it this far and entering poker’s biggest stage with a chip lead.  However, like Phillips a year ago I think Moon goes from chip leader to eliminated before heads up.

The potential pitfall I see hitting Moon is overplaying a marginal made hand (say middle pair or pocket tens/jacks on a flop where an ace or king hits) in the hopes of knocking out a Phil Ivey or Antoine Saout and losing a large amount of chips on hands like that.

Also, an inexperienced player like Moon may not try to avoid showdowns with fellow chip leaders like Jeff Shulman or Eric Buchman and in turn lose big hands to them that had no need to overplay.

Why Not Here:

Though I may be strongly glossing over this fact, Moon does enter final table play with a large chip lead (over 20 million chips).

While I doubt his ability to retain that status or play like an astute big stack, should he maintain his composure and select his battles wisely he can easily gather enough chips to sit comfortably most of the night as his fellow players knock each other out.

Moon played a steady game making it this far and though the deck likely cremated him he still had the skill to win the big pots to put him in this position.  Also, as the one person at the table content to remain an amateur, he may not be under the pressure of the others to win this prestigious event.

Summary:

I surely will not be alone predicting a hard and fast fall for the likable logger.  Moon would be as popular of a champion to casual fans as Chris Moneymaker but I think in a year where pros have dominated the trend continues at the final table.

#4 Kevin Schaffel

A Strong, Steady Player that I May be Underselling

Why Here:

Even at this accomplished table Schaffel probably enters as the fourth best player given his recent results (the deep run and the amazing follow-up at the WPT Legends of Poker) and current form.

Schaffel enters the final table with enough chips to remain committed to his game and not having to force a move like Akenhead, Saout, and even Phil Ivey.

Since I believe that Eric Buchman and Jeff Shulman likely benefit from a Darvin Moon mistake I think Schaffel may hold in place and finish in the middle of the pack.

That being said, I would be foolish to undersell his chances given what he has proven now on multiple major poker stages and Schaffel should enter the final table believing he can take home the bracelet and $8.5 million first prize.

Why Not Here:

Schaffel certainly has the talent to finish higher but also has mega-talented players like Akenhead and Saout in his rear view mirror and both of them could pass him by if they collect chips early.

My instinct is that if he finishes outside of the middle of the pack it will be lower not higher just because more aggressive players pass him by.

Still, should Schaffel be crowned main event champion it should not surprise poker fans and I can definitely envision him competing at the end of the event.

Summary:

This may be my safest prediction yet and the one I feel most comfortable about.  I do not believe that Schaffel will defeat himself by making an unnecessary risky play but I also think that one of his fellow competitors will be a little more dynamic and pass him by on their way to winning the main event title.

#7 Steven Begleiter

Betting that Begs Goes Begging for Chips Early

Why Here:

Though he enters third in chips I believe that Begleiter’s lack of experience compared to his final table compatriots will cause him to struggle gaining traction on this big stage and lead to an early elimination.

Reckless plays like the one he made against James Akenhead that ESPN profiled during their WSOP coverage (way over betting a lower pair and hitting two pair to win on the river) will not turn out to be so fortunate here, especially with so many players that will pounce on anything resembling a bad play.

Also, I can see Begleiter taking a major risk early trying to knockout a small stack like Akenhead or Phil Ivey and doubling them up with an inferior hand.

Why He’ll Make Me Look Foolish:

Lost in the strong runs a number of November Nine players have made since joining this elite club is that Begleiter finished ninth in a strong field for the WPT Legends of Poker (the same tournament that Kevin Schaffel finished runner-up).

The same work ethic that made Beglieter a success in the business world should make him prepare strongly for this final stage and sharpen up his skills to consistently compete at this level.

Finally, if he can find himself in an advantageous position with current chip leader Darvin Moon and take a big pot from him, he could be the chip leader in short order and go to work from there.

Summary:

With the unpredictability of a final table and the added dimension of having three months off in between the conclusion of play and resumption in November, I believe that starting chip stacks mean very little.  Because of that I have no issue forecasting a relatively inexperienced player like Steven Begleiter that enters a strong third in chips ($10 million chips ahead of fourth position Jeff Shulman) exiting third from last.

#6 Antoine Saout

My Final Table Darkhorse

Why Here:

Saout may have entered the main event an unknown but his run towards the November Nine and subsequent trip to the WSOP Europe main event final table (where he finished seventh) shows him to be a top notch player capable of holding his own wherever he plays.

As such I believe Saout will manage his short stack nicely and stay competitive at the final table until his lack of chips does him in.  In previous years (especially 2007 and 2008) Saout would have to be considered one of the favorites with his growing resume but this year he faces off against a strong table of skilled poker pros.

Saout will not be an easy out but at some point he will have to push his chips and hope that he can win a likely coin flip showdown and that can only work for so long.

Why He’ll Make Me Foolish:

With two of the most experienced players (Moon and Begleiter) sitting with deep chip stacks they may be overly aggressive in trying to eliminate a strong short stack like Saout and double him up in hands Saout dominates them (a strong ace against weaker ace or bigger pocket pair).

If Saout can accumulate chips early he has the talent to springboard early gains into a long, distinguished run that may even culminate by him winning the ultimate plaze.  Seeing as how Jerry Yang won the main event bracelet after entering as a short stack in 2007 a much more accomplished player in Saout is certainly capable of repeating that feat.

Summary:

Saout has proven himself to be a high quality player but he is not alone at this table and having players like Eric Buchman and Jeff Shulman significantly ahead of him in chips will likely end up being Saout’s undoing.

Still, for those people looking to bet a dark horse I think Saout could emerge as the short stack at this table that plays his way into seriously contending for the bracelet late.